Semi‐Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve

We develop a semi‐structural model for forecasting inflation in the UK in which the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is augmented with a time series model for marginal cost. By combining structural and time series elements we hope to reap the benefits of both approaches, namely the relatively better forecasting performance of time series models in the short run and a theory‐consistent economic interpretation of the forecast coming from the structural model. In our model we consider the hybrid version of the NKPC and use an open‐economy measure of marginal cost. The results suggest that our semi‐structural model performs better than a random‐walk forecast and most of the competing models (conventional time series models and strictly structural models) only in the short run (one quarter ahead) but it is outperformed by some of the competing models at medium and long forecast horizons (four and eight quarters ahead). In addition, the open‐economy specification of our semi‐structural model delivers more accurate forecasts than its closed‐economy alternative at all horizons. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

双寡头企业主动开发新产品或拷贝式模仿的博弈分析

主动开发新产品，还是等待其他企业先开发出来新产品然后进行模仿是企业R＆D的一个战略问题。本文在一定时间区间内客户是忠诚的假设下，分别计算主动开发和等待模仿在完全信息动态和不完全信息动态两种情况下双方的利润和利润均衡点，给出企业进行新产品开发或进行拷贝式模仿博弈的量化公式。     

《中国地理》课程改革与教材建设理念研究

分析地理科学的发展历程以及区域地理形成和发展的大背景 ,明确《中国地理》课程的内容体系的地位和作用 ,指出发挥学科优势、适应时代和地区要求是本课程改革和建设的总目标和必由之路 .     

新型立体垂直塔板的开发现状

新型立体垂直筛板是近年来应用较为广泛的一种筛板,其主要特点是气液并流接触,传质在塔板空间内进行.本文对近年来开发的几种新型立体垂直筛板进行了详细的介绍,对其流体力学性能进行了比较,并对其发展前景进行了预测     

直接还原的技术进步及其在我国的发展

介绍直接还原的历史发展与现状，根据我国的实际情况阐述了直接还原技术在我国的发展前景，结合议题组过去的研究及最新的实验成果进行分析，并提出一些浅见。     

中国食酪螨属一新种记述：蜱螨亚纲：粉螨科

记述了从江西省南昌市酿造厂、制酒厂的豆饼和高粱等内采得食酪螨属(Tyrophagus)一新种,即赣江食酪螨Tyrophagus ganjiangensis sp.nov.     

结合青海实际谈《中国自然地理》的教学

指出青海是祖国十分可爱的地方 ,但是由于地势高峻、交通不便、经济落后 ,因此教育也相对滞后 .文章还对处于经济与教育相对落后的省份 ,青海的高等师范院校应如何上好《中国自然地理》课的问题阐述了看法     

Riding on Tyvek-A Case Study about How a New Material Invented by Western Multinational Company Enters China

This paper is a case study about how a new product developed by Western multinational company enters new market ?the Mainland China. In this study, a new fabric ?DuPont's hi-technical Tyvek?PU Coating, is fashionized and developed into a new fashionable and functional casual-rainwear, using the approach of new product development method ( idea generation; screening; business analysis; development; evaluation and testing; commercialization).     

人类对地球形状认识的辩证过程

在系统讨论了人类对地球形状认识的复杂历史之后,作者认为这是一个“否定之否定”式的螺旋状上升过程,即“非球→球→非球…”的过程。在经历了5次“非球→球”的认识反复之后,目前人类已跨入对地球本身便存在着“球(?)非球”的动态变化过程的认识这个崭新的阶段。     

从《红楼梦评论》到《红楼梦辨》--王国维、俞平伯评红的贡献与不足

在红学史上,王国维和俞平伯都有杰出的贡献,王国维的《红楼梦评论》和俞平伯的《红楼梦辨》都具有里程碑的意义。《红楼梦评论》和《红楼梦辨》二者的承继关系尤为明显,前者对后者具有很大的启发作用,而后者不仅对前者有所继承,也有重要发展,因此可以说,新红学的产生与王国维的影响是分不开的。